Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Asset-specific sentiment inversions & price drivers for financial NLP
energy
Β· NYMEX (CME Group)
Β· CL (Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures)
Sentiment Profile
WTI often rallies on geopolitical fears despite demand destruction narratives, and can fall on peace talks even when supply remains constrained. Bearish inventory builds sometimes trigger short-covering rallies.
Market Context
CL (Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures)
Demand typically rises in summer driving season (May-September) and winter heating season. Refinery maintenance in spring/fall can create temporary supply squeezes.
Price Drivers
OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory builds/draws, geopolitical risk in Middle East and Russia, USD strength, global demand outlook, refinery capacity
Sentiment Trend
Recent Signals
View all βExample Events (10)
| Event | Direction | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|
| Oil prices trade sideways ahead of key inventory data release | π‘ NEUTRAL | 0.30 |
| OPEC releases monthly market report with mixed signals | π‘ NEUTRAL | 0.40 |
| US dollar strengthens to 6-month high against major currencies | π΄ BEARISH | 0.55 |
| IEA slashes global oil demand forecast citing economic slowdown | π΄ BEARISH | 0.70 |
| OPEC+ fails to agree on production cuts, members free to pump at will | π΄ BEARISH | 0.85 |
| US crude inventories surge by 12 million barrels, highest build in months | π΄ BEARISH | 0.80 |
| China announces major economic stimulus package, boosting demand outlook | π’ BULLISH | 0.65 |
| Geopolitical tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz | π’ BULLISH | 0.70 |
| EIA reports surprise inventory draw of 8 million barrels | π’ BULLISH | 0.75 |
| OPEC+ announces deeper production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day | π’ BULLISH | 0.85 |
Phrases where sentiment is opposite to what a generic model would predict
| Phrase | Naive Polarity | Actual Direction | Reason | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
inventory build
|
π’ Positive | π΄ BEARISH | Rising stockpiles signal oversupply, pushing prices down | 0.85 |
inventory draw
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Falling stockpiles signal tight supply, pushing prices up | 0.85 |
strong dollar
|
π’ Positive | π΄ BEARISH | Oil priced in USD β stronger dollar makes it more expensive globally, reducing demand | 0.80 |
demand destruction
|
π΄ Negative | π΄ BEARISH | Confirms weakening consumption | 0.90 |
OPEC output cut
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | FP-Growth rule: naive negative β actual bullish. Confidence: 0.73, Support: 0.08 | 0.73 |
refinery outage reported
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | FP-Growth rule: naive negative β actual bullish. Confidence: 0.71 | 0.71 |
OPEC production increase
OPEC raises output
OPEC boosts production
higher OPEC supply
|
π’ Positive | π΄ BEARISH | Market interprets OPEC output hikes as a signal of weak demand outlook or loss of production discipline, triggering sell-offs despite nominal supply increases. | 0.85 |
opec talks 3
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | FP-Growth rule: naive negative β actual bullish. Confidence: 0.71 | 0.71 |
refinery utilization decline
lower refinery rates
refinery maintenance season
reduced refining demand
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Lower refinery runs signal tight crude balances and rising crude inventories, which reduces near-term crude demand and can actually support prices by preventing oversupply gluts. | 0.78 |
Fed rate cuts expected
monetary easing ahead
lower interest rates coming
dovish central bank
|
π’ Positive | π΄ BEARISH | Rate cuts typically signal economic slowdown concerns, which reduces energy demand expectations and causes oil to sell off despite looser monetary conditions benefiting risk assets. | 0.82 |
opec talks 4
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | FP-Growth rule: naive negative β actual bullish. Confidence: 0.71 | 0.71 |
biden sanctions
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'biden sanctions' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
sanctions spare
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'sanctions spare' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
spare russia
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'spare russia' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
biden sanctions spare
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'biden sanctions spare' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
sanctions spare russia
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'sanctions spare russia' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
energy cooperation
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'energy cooperation' appears in 5 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 71%, support 0%. | 0.71 |
crude exports
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'crude exports' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 1.00 |
protesters interrupt easter
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'protesters interrupt easter' appears in 4 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 67%, support 0%. | 0.67 |
interrupt easter mass
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'interrupt easter mass' appears in 4 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 67%, support 0%. | 0.67 |
Iran mulling closure of Strait of Hormuz to stick it to adversaries β lawmaker
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 0.58 |
Strait of Hormuz closing to affect Iranβs economy β expert
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 0.65 |
Turkey confident Iran wonβt close Strait of Hormuz β Erdogan
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 0.70 |
Bank of Russia expects growth of prices on countryβs non-energy export in midterm
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Supply constraint / infrastructure block is bullish β reduces supply | 0.52 |
Moscow extends the ban on gasoline exports amid the fragility of the Russian market
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Supply constraint / infrastructure block is bullish β reduces supply | 0.41 |
Iranian lawmaker sees Hormuz Strait closure as proper response to possible US attack
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 1.00 |
Federal Antimonopoly Service sees no need to ban diesel fuel exports
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Supply constraint / infrastructure block is bullish β reduces supply | 0.45 |
Bank of Russia notes more moderate dynamics of external demand for Russian export goods
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Supply constraint / infrastructure block is bullish β reduces supply | 0.44 |
US calls on China to convince Iran not to close Strait of Hormuz β Rubio
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 0.65 |
Russian antitrust regulator proposes banning gasoline exports by producers for a month
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Supply constraint / infrastructure block is bullish β reduces supply | 0.38 |
U.S. Fleet 5:3 Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats harassed a merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
|
π’ Positive | π’ BULLISH | Strait of Hormuz threat / Iran sanctions risk is bullish β supply disruption premium | 0.70 |
opec talks final
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Test | 0.10 |
talks begin
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'talks begin' appears in 4 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. | 0.10 |
Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz closure
Hormuz threat
Hormuz blockade
|
π‘ Neutral | π’ BULLISH | Hormuz closure/threat creates supply disruption risk premium regardless of actual closure probability. Naive: geopolitical noise. Actual: immediate oil price spike on supply risk. [ROLLBACK: accuracy test showed 18.4% precision on 272 matches β too broad] | 0.85 |
opec talks
|
π΄ Negative | π’ BULLISH | Phrase 'opec talks' appears in 3 bearish OIL headlines that were followed by price rises >2% within 5 days. Confidence 100%, support 0%. [ROLLBACK: only 1 matched article in labeled corpus β insufficient validation] | 1.00 |
AI-generated and community-submitted inversions awaiting validation. Confirm or reject based on your market knowledge.
π§ͺ Hypotheses β AI-generated, awaiting community validation
News sources configured for this security's ingestion pipeline
| Source | Type | Query Terms | Items | Last Fetched |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| api | api | 11487 | Mar 29 | |
| gdelt | gdelt | 3896 | May 17 | |
| TASS | TASS | 3414 | Mar 11 | |
| google_news | google_news | 1362 | May 17 | |
| Al Jazeera Arabic | Al Jazeera Arabic | 1339 | Mar 11 | |
| 729 | Apr 10 | |||
| rss | rss | 511 | May 17 | |
| fmp_general | fmp_general | 431 | May 05 | |
| fmp | fmp | 237 | Mar 18 | |
| theguardian.com | theguardian.com | 194 | Mar 10 | |
| rss_ext | rss_ext | 167 | May 17 | |
| Twitter/@JavierBlas | Twitter/@JavierBlas | 76 | Mar 11 | |
| Hellenic Shipping News | Hellenic Shipping News | 76 | Mar 11 | |
| 54 | May 17 | |||
| OilPrice.com | OilPrice.com | 52 | Mar 11 | |
| FT Energy | FT Energy | 48 | Mar 11 | |
| Offshore Energy | Offshore Energy | 41 | Mar 11 | |
| hellenicshippingnews.com | hellenicshippingnews.com | 34 | Mar 11 | |
| Splash247 | Splash247 | 30 | Mar 11 | |
| Maritime Professional | Maritime Professional | 25 | Mar 11 | |
| oilprice.com | oilprice.com | 18 | Mar 11 | |
| punchng.com | punchng.com | 16 | Mar 11 | |
| Investing.com Commodities | Investing.com Commodities | 15 | Mar 11 | |
| yahoo.com | yahoo.com | 12 | Mar 11 | |
| forexlive.com | forexlive.com | 9 | Mar 11 | |
| yt:bloomberg_markets | yt:bloomberg_markets | 9 | Mar 11 | |
| Twitter/@Ole_S_Hansen | Twitter/@Ole_S_Hansen | 8 | Mar 11 | |
| peakoil.com | peakoil.com | 8 | Mar 11 | |
| bangkokpost.com | bangkokpost.com | 6 | Mar 11 | |
| indiatimes.com | indiatimes.com | 6 | Mar 11 | |
| marketscreener.com | marketscreener.com | 6 | Mar 11 | |
| yt:cnbc_television | yt:cnbc_television | 5 | Mar 11 | |
| worldoil.com | worldoil.com | 5 | Mar 11 | |
| namibiansun.com | namibiansun.com | 4 | Mar 11 | |
| republikein.com.na | republikein.com.na | 4 | Mar 11 | |
| arabtimesonline.com | arabtimesonline.com | 4 | Mar 11 | |
| ghanamma.com | ghanamma.com | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| english.news.cn | english.news.cn | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| insidermonkey.com | insidermonkey.com | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| yt:reuters | yt:reuters | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| gdnonline.com | gdnonline.com | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| bbc.co.uk | bbc.co.uk | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| Twitter/@EIAgov | Twitter/@EIAgov | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| cnbc.com | cnbc.com | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| straitstimes.com | straitstimes.com | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| blueprint.ng | blueprint.ng | 3 | Mar 11 | |
| maritime-executive.com | maritime-executive.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| marinelink.com | marinelink.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| thestar.com.my | thestar.com.my | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| chinaview.cn | chinaview.cn | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| finanznachrichten.de | finanznachrichten.de | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| livemint.com | livemint.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| thisdaylive.com | thisdaylive.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| bignewsnetwork.com | bignewsnetwork.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| kelo.com | kelo.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| theglobeandmail.com | theglobeandmail.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| deccanchronicle.com | deccanchronicle.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| wtvr.com | wtvr.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| gcaptain.com | gcaptain.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| hydrocarbons-technology.com | hydrocarbons-technology.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| 933thedrive.com | 933thedrive.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| businesstimes.com.sg | businesstimes.com.sg | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| menafn.com | menafn.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| hotair.com | hotair.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| Energy Monitor | Energy Monitor | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| aol.com | aol.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| fool.com.au | fool.com.au | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| fortune.com | fortune.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| EIA Today in Energy | EIA Today in Energy | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| island.lk | island.lk | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| fool.com | fool.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| dailymail.co.uk | dailymail.co.uk | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| bworldonline.com | bworldonline.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| nationalaccordnewspaper.com | nationalaccordnewspaper.com | 2 | Mar 11 | |
| venezuelanalysis.com | venezuelanalysis.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| standard.co.uk | standard.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| gazetteherald.co.uk | gazetteherald.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| nmpoliticalreport.com | nmpoliticalreport.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wypr.org | wypr.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thejakartapost.com | thejakartapost.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| lemonde.fr | lemonde.fr | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| saharareporters.com | saharareporters.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| northsomersettimes.co.uk | northsomersettimes.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| presstv.ir | presstv.ir | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| globalnews.ca | globalnews.ca | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| fxstreet.com | fxstreet.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| victorygirlsblog.com | victorygirlsblog.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| arynews.tv | arynews.tv | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| AlphaVantage | AlphaVantage | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| batemansbaypost.com.au | batemansbaypost.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| pakobserver.net | pakobserver.net | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thecable.ng | thecable.ng | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| us105fm.com | us105fm.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wkzo.com | wkzo.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| cbs58.com | cbs58.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| theyeshivaworld.com | theyeshivaworld.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| naturalnews.com | naturalnews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| jamaica-gleaner.com | jamaica-gleaner.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| ukrinform.net | ukrinform.net | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| kxxv.com | kxxv.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| dailymaverick.co.za | dailymaverick.co.za | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| newsday.co.tt | newsday.co.tt | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| theage.com.au | theage.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| infonews.co.nz | infonews.co.nz | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| sunnewsonline.com | sunnewsonline.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| fox5atlanta.com | fox5atlanta.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| theborneopost.com | theborneopost.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thenationonlineng.net | thenationonlineng.net | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| cambridge-news.co.uk | cambridge-news.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| ktul.com | ktul.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| pressherald.com | pressherald.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| withinnigeria.com | withinnigeria.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| aol.co.uk | aol.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| heritage.org | heritage.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| iheart.com | iheart.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| mynewsla.com | mynewsla.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| nairametrics.com | nairametrics.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| app.com.pk | app.com.pk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wpsu.org | wpsu.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| foxla.com | foxla.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| watoday.com.au | watoday.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| fox23maine.com | fox23maine.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| interest.co.nz | interest.co.nz | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| bernews.com | bernews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| kyma.com | kyma.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| zerohedge.com | zerohedge.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wiky.com | wiky.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| biztoc.com | biztoc.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| geo.tv | geo.tv | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| miragenews.com | miragenews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| nigerianeye.com | nigerianeye.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| newsghana.com.gh | newsghana.com.gh | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| peeblesshirenews.com | peeblesshirenews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| timesofsandiego.com | timesofsandiego.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| worldtribune.com | worldtribune.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| kfgo.com | kfgo.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| en.trend.az | en.trend.az | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| dailyfx.com | dailyfx.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| ilfordrecorder.co.uk | ilfordrecorder.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| npr.org | npr.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| india.com | india.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| royaldutchshellplc.com | royaldutchshellplc.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wcbe.org | wcbe.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| devdiscourse.com | devdiscourse.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| caller.com | caller.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| newswise.com | newswise.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| go.com | go.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| westerntelegraph.co.uk | westerntelegraph.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| qatar-tribune.com | qatar-tribune.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| RT Arabic | RT Arabic | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| edenmagnet.com.au | edenmagnet.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thepeninsulaqatar.com | thepeninsulaqatar.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| bursa.ro | bursa.ro | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| vietnamnews.vn | vietnamnews.vn | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| sharechat.co.nz | sharechat.co.nz | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| whbl.com | whbl.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| iraq-businessnews.com | iraq-businessnews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| tell.ng | tell.ng | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| wattsupwiththat.com | wattsupwiththat.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thechronicle.com.gh | thechronicle.com.gh | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| riotimesonline.com | riotimesonline.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| dmarge.com | dmarge.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| nzherald.co.nz | nzherald.co.nz | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| einnews.com | einnews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| ktxs.com | ktxs.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| vietnamnet.vn | vietnamnet.vn | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| channelnewsasia.com | channelnewsasia.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| cameroon-tribune.cm | cameroon-tribune.cm | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| 9news.com.au | 9news.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| rnz.co.nz | rnz.co.nz | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| canadafreepress.com | canadafreepress.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| pointblanknews.com | pointblanknews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| bakerhughes.com | bakerhughes.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| houstonpublicmedia.org | houstonpublicmedia.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| 2lt.com.au | 2lt.com.au | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| slashgear.com | slashgear.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| hillingdontimes.co.uk | hillingdontimes.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thecherrycreeknews.com | thecherrycreeknews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| townhall.com | townhall.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| ross-shirejournal.co.uk | ross-shirejournal.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| komonews.com | komonews.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| nbcmontana.com | nbcmontana.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| evwind.es | evwind.es | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| thepeterboroughexaminer.com | thepeterboroughexaminer.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| twitchy.com | twitchy.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| as.com | as.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| echo-news.co.uk | echo-news.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| bristolpost.co.uk | bristolpost.co.uk | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| dundalkdemocrat.ie | dundalkdemocrat.ie | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| eyeradio.org | eyeradio.org | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| aspentimes.com | aspentimes.com | 1 | Mar 11 | |
| japantoday.com | japantoday.com | 1 | Mar 11 |